As I’m sure you’ve read, some ‘experts’ around the USA expect property prices to fall sharply in 2026. Yahoo Finance reported that the entire U.S. housing market is about to fall off a cliff in 2026 – maybe 50% down in some places. 

Let’s break down their argument and then look at reality.  

1. What the “crash” article actually says

• House prices nationwide are way too high. 
• Average house: $410,000.
• Average wage: $83,000.
• To buy the average house today, you need to earn £30,000–£40,000 a year, more than most people do.
• The lady who wrote the article says prices MUST come crashing down to meet wages in a 2008-style crash.
• She thinks it starts properly in 2026.

Scary stuff… if you live in the posh bits.

2. Why I’m not panicking (and neither should you if you’re in the Rust Belt)

• Anyone who watched ‘the big short’ knows that 2008 was caused by lenders being allowed to give dodgy loans to people who couldn’t pay.
• Today, almost everyone has huge equity and fixed-rate mortgages.
• Delinquency rates (people missing payments) are near record lows.
• Most credible forecasts say U.S. prices will go up 1–4% in 2026, not down 50%.

3. It’s not the same everywhere – this is the big one

America is massive. One rule does not fit all.

Sun Belt (Florida, Texas, Arizona, Nevada)

• Prices went bonkers in 2020–2023.
• Loads of new houses built.
• Lots of people are now working back in the office → moving away.
• Result → prices already wobbling or falling 5–15 % in many places.

Rust Belt (Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, Rochester, Pittsburgh)

• Prices never went crazy in the first place.
• You can still buy a decent house for $120k–$200k.
• Rents easily cover the mortgage.
• Purchase price is lower than replacement cost (meaning zero new supply coming online any time soon)
• Jobs are steady (factories, hospitals, Tesla gigafactory near me).
• Sales in Buffalo are actually UP 10 % this year.
• Vacancies tiny. Tenants stay put because it’s cheap.

In short, the Sun Belt might have a proper correction.
The Rust Belt is boring… and boring is brilliant for landlords and buyers.

4. Simple advice

If you’re thinking of buying:

• Avoid the over-heated Sun Belt for now unless you grab a bargain.
• Look at the Rust Belt and similar forgotten spots. Prices low, rents strong, almost zero chance of a 2008-style crash.

If you already own:

• Sun Belt → keep an eye on it, maybe lock in a fixed rate.
• Rust Belt → sleep easy, keep collecting rent.

There’s no nationwide asteroid coming in 2026.
There are just two very different Americas – one cooling off, one quietly getting on with it.